Former Afghan Justice Minister Fazal Ahmad Manavi has declared that the de facto Taliban administration’s twin pillars of political survival—manipulating religious authority and exploiting Pashtun ethnic majoritarianism—are encountering severe structural strain. According to Manavi, critical statements from influential Pashtun political figures, most notably Hezb-e Islami leader Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, directly challenge the regime’s claim to monopolize ethnic representation and ideological legitimacy.
For years, the ruling hierarchy in Kandahar has relied on a rigid interpretation of religious doctrine paired with ethno-nationalist alignment to consolidate power and suppress political opposition. However, public calls by veteran Pashtun leaders demanding an end to un-Islamic governance, advocating for elections, and urging the transfer of authority back to the citizenry demonstrate that internal dissatisfaction spans across traditional ethnic boundaries.
This growing internal fragmentation reveals the fragile foundation of the de facto government’s political control. As economic collapse deepens and civil liberties remain strictly suppressed, the regime’s attempt to enforce obedience through ideological monopoly is increasingly alienated from broad segments of Afghan society, including key Pashtun constituencies.
For neighboring states, including Pakistan, persistent political fractures inside Afghanistan demonstrate that mono-factional rule cannot bring long-term stability. The absence of an inclusive political settlement and the continued suppression of public will maintain a volatile geopolitical landscape, fostering conditions that fuel regional security uncertainty and cross-border displacement.
International political observers conclude that no regime can sustain authority solely through religious coercion and majoritarian posturing. Without restoring fundamental rights, building inclusive governance structures, and respecting genuine public consensus, the ruling administration will face escalating domestic resistance and absolute international isolation.